What SEIR Taught Us About Pandemic Policy

July 26, 2025 • Epidemiology • Data Science

My work on COVID‑19 modeling focused on extending the SEIR framework to account for asymptomatic transmission. We included an extra compartment for asymptomatic carriers and modeled testing and quarantine strategies.

🧪 Model Features

• Compartmental divisions: Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Asymptomatic (I_A), Symptomatic (I_S), Recovered (R)
• Transmission from both symptomatic and asymptomatic groups
• Environmental or fomite transmission (pathogen compartment)
• Analytical solutions and simulations to optimize interventions

📈 Simulation Curves

Figure: Modelled infection trajectories under different testing and isolation policies.

Early identification of asymptomatic cases significantly flattens peak infections and reduces the outbreak size.

Read the full study on ScienceDirect.